Türkiye’s annual consumer inflation stood at 29.73 percent in September, below market expectations of 30.3 percent, according to official figures released on Oct. 5.
Consumer prices rose 1.84 percent month-on-month, the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK) said on Oct. 5.
Annual inflation fell below 30 percent for the first time in 57 months [since November 2021], said Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek on a social media post, commenting on the latest data.
“Disinflation is spreading across the board, excluding transportation. In September, food inflation decreased by 8.4 points compared to the same period last year, reaching an annual rate of 27.6 percent,” he noted.
“To limit the impact of recently rising oil prices on inflation, we are gradually phasing out the sliding-scale tax mechanism [eşel mobil] in gasoline following diesel,” he added.
Şimşek noted that the Central Bank calculates that inflation would have been 7 points lower this year had there been no war.
“We are continuing our policies aimed at increasing the supply of housing and food. In 2027, the reduction in inertia in service inflation, particularly in rent and education, and the weakening of commodity price increase effects will contribute to the decline in inflation,” said Şimşek.
According to TÜİK data, food and non-alcoholic beverage prices, one of the largest components of the consumer price index, fell 0.2 percent from the previous month.
Transportation prices increased 2.79 percent, while housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuel costs rose 2.71 percent.
Transportation contributed 0.49 percentage points to monthly inflation and housing added 0.33 percentage points. Food prices reduced the monthly reading by 0.05 percentage points.
On an annual basis, food and non-alcoholic beverage prices rose 27.62 percent, transportation costs increased 35.1 percent, and housing prices climbed 39.99 percent.
These groups contributed 6.73, 5.96 and 4.84 percentage points, respectively, to annual inflation.
The core C index, which excludes energy, food and non-alcoholic beverages, alcoholic beverages, tobacco and gold, increased 28.7 percent annually and 2.14 percent monthly.
The B index, which excludes unprocessed food, energy, alcoholic beverages, tobacco and gold, rose 29 percent annually and 2.01 percent month-on-month.
Of the 174 expenditure subclasses tracked by TÜİK, prices increased in 133, declined in 35 and remained unchanged in six.
With September inflation data now released, investors will shift their focus to the Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting on Oct. 22, when policymakers are due to announce their next interest rate decision. The bank’s final rate-setting meeting of 2026 is scheduled for Dec. 10.
As widely expected, the Central Bank on July 23 kept its policy rate unchanged at 37 percent, extending its monetary policy pause for a fourth consecutive meeting.
Meanwhile, Central Bank Governor Fatih Karahan is scheduled to deliver a presentation to lawmakers at the Turkish parliament’s Planning and Budget Commission on Oct. 6.
Karahan is expected to provide a comprehensive presentation covering global developments, the Turkish economy, inflation and monetary policy.
