China emissions flat in third quarter as solar surges: Study

PARIS

China's CO2 emissions remained flat in the third quarter as power generation from solar energy surged and electric car use continued to grow, a study showed on Tuesday.

Emissions from the world's biggest polluter have now been flat or falling for 18 straight months, said the analysis published by climate news specialist Carbon Brief.

"After the first three quarters of the year, China's CO2 emissions in 2025 are now finely balanced between a small fall or rise, depending on what happens in the last quarter," said Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air.

"A drop in the full-year total became much more likely after September, which recorded an approximately three percent drop in emissions year-on-year," said Myllyvirta.

The new analysis, which is based on official Chinese data, comes as the U.N.'s COP30 climate conference kicked off in Brazil on Nov. 11.

"While an emission increase or decrease of one percent or less might not make a huge difference in an objective sense, it has heightened symbolic meaning," Myllyvirta said.

"China's policymakers have left room for emissions to increase for several more years, leaving the timing of the peak open," he added.

Electricity generation from solar energy rose 46 percent while wind grew 11 percent compared to the same period last year.

Emissions from transport fuel dropped by 5 percent, with declines also in cement and steel production.

Oil demand and emissions grew elsewhere by 10 percent as the production of plastics and other chemicals surged, the analysis found.