Global supply chain risks mount over critical mineral dependencies

ANKARA

Supply concerns over critical minerals, driven by dominance in certain countries, are posing risks to global chains amid the accelerating shift to cleaner energy, a recent report has highlighted.

Italian energy company Eni’s World Energy Review 2025 indicated that minerals such as cobalt, lithium, nickel, manganese and graphite are essential for battery production and the broader adoption of renewables.

Cobalt reserves are heavily concentrated in the Democratic Republic of Congo at 56.1 percent of the global total, while China accounts for 77.9 percent of graphite production, the Democratic Republic of Congo for 76 percent of cobalt output and Indonesia for over 60 percent of nickel production.

China holds around 40 percent of the world’s rare earth reserves and 69 percent of global production, solidifying its lead in processing critical minerals and rare earth elements, the report noted.

Global critical mineral production grew by an average of 5.5 percent year-on-year in 2024, led by a sharp rise in cobalt, though declines in manganese and nickel partially offset the overall increase.

The concentration of production in a few nations raises supply security issues, reduces market competition and has driven price surges for many critical materials in recent years as energy transition demand escalates, creating strategic vulnerabilities, according to the report.

Caner Zanbak, environmental coordinator at the Turkish Miners’ Association, told Anadolu Agency that China has advanced significantly in critical mineral mining and processing over the past two decades, becoming a pivotal player in green energy and advanced technology supply chains.

In response to U.S. tariffs, China imposed export restrictions on certain green energy and advanced tech minerals starting in 2020, with stricter measures on rare earths and production technologies introduced in 2025.

“China’s restrictions create significant geopolitical dependency risks in energy transformation and advanced tech manufacturing for other major economies,” he said.

Zanbak pointed out that large reserves of minerals beyond cobalt, graphite and nickel in select countries have made them focal points for economies like the U.S., the EU, Japan and South Korea.

Export policies aimed at keeping production domestic, combined with political instability, threaten critical mineral supply security.

“We will see major trade wars due to raw material supply risks in the next three to five years,” he warned.

He added that some nations have formed strategic partnerships to safeguard critical mineral supplies.

“Developing countries like Türkiye need to accurately identify their manufacturing industries’ needs, develop raw material sources and implement procurement strategies to reduce supply risks,” Zanbak said.

“Türkiye is rich in geological resources and mineral diversity, so it would benefit from accelerating the implementation of ongoing action plans,” he noted.

China's mineral dominance discussed at G7 meeting

G7 foreign ministers gathered in Canada on Nov. 11 for discussions that included China's dominance in critical minerals, among other global issues.

The meeting followed an agreement by the group's energy ministers two weeks earlier on measures to counter China's control over critical mineral supply chains, a mounting concern for industrialized democracies.

Last month, the G7 unveiled initial joint projects to boost refining capacity outside China.

Although the United States did not join those initial agreements, the incoming Trump administration has indicated alignment with G7 partners on the issue.

A U.S. State Department official told reporters before the Niagara Falls gathering that critical mineral supply chains would be a key focus.

"There's a growing global consensus among many of our partners and allies that economic security is national security," the official said.