Inflation expectations for 2025 rise, shows Central Bank survey

ANKARA

Expectations for Türkiye’s year-end consumer inflation (CPI) increased to 31.77 percent, up from 29.86 percent in the previous survey period, according to the Central Bank’s October 2025 Market Participants Survey.

The 12‑month ahead CPI forecast rose to 23.26 percent from 22.25 percent, while the 24‑month ahead expectation climbed to 17.36 percent from 16.78 percent.

The Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK) announced on Oct. 3 that annual inflation stood at 33.29 percent in September, compared with 32.95 percent in August, exceeding market expectations of around 32.5 percent. The increase marked the end of a 15‑month streak of declines in annual inflation.

Growth projections also showed a slight upward revision, according to the survey. Participants’ GDP growth expectation for 2025 rose to 3.3 percent from 3.2 percent, while the 2026 forecast edged up to 3.8 percent from 3.7 percent.

Currency expectations shifted modestly. The year-end USD/TRY exchange rate forecast declined from 43.85 to 43.56 in the previous survey, while the 12‑month ahead forecast rose from 48.96 to 49.75.

Interest rate expectations moved lower. The average overnight repo rate in the Borsa Istanbul Repo and Reverse Repo Market was projected at 39.15 percent, down from 40.48 percent in the prior survey. For the October Monetary Policy Committee meeting, participants expected the Central Bank to set the policy rate at 39 percent.