New medium-term program forecasts 3.3 percent growth in 2025
ANKARA
Türkiye has outlined its key economic indicators and targets in the newly announced medium-term program (OVP) covering the 2026–2028 period.
According to the program, the growth forecast for this year stands at 3.3 percent, a downward revision from the previous program’s 4 percent.
The economy is projected to grow by 3.8 percent in 2026, 4.3 percent in 2027 and 5 percent in 2028.
Inflation is expected to reach 28.5 percent by the end of this year, with targets set at 16 percent for 2026, 9 percent for 2027, and 8 percent for 2028.
Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz and Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek announced the new OVP at the Presidential Complex in Ankara on Sept. 8.
“As we conclude the year 2025, our program’s key performance indicators will reflect a historic milestone: for the first time, our national income will exceed $1.5 trillion, and our per capita income will surpass $17,000,” Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz said.
Moreover, for the first time, Türkiye will be classified among high-income countries according to the World Bank’s categorization, he added.
By the end of 2025, Türkiye will rank as the 16th largest economy in the world and the 6th largest in Europe, according to Yılmaz.
With the policies implemented and the gains to be achieved, the Turkish economy will reach a much stronger outlook by the end of the [2026-28] program period, Yılmaz said.
By the end of 2028, national income will approach $1.9 trillion and per capita income will rise to $21,000, he added.
“We do not have a policy target or forecast regarding the exchange rate. The level of the exchange rate is determined by market supply and demand conditions,” Yılmaz also said, adding that in cases of excessive volatility, relevant institutions intervene to maintain market stability.
The budget deficit as a share of gross domestic product is projected to be 3.5 percent in 2026 and decline to 2.8 percent by the end of the program period.
The program also includes projections for foreign trade.
Exports are forecast to reach $273.8 billion by the end of 2025, rising to $282 billion in 2026, $294 billion in 2027 and $308.5 billion by the end of the program.
Imports are expected to total $367 billion by the end of this year, increasing to $378 billion in 2026, $393 billion in 2027 and $410.5 billion in 2028.
The OVP aims to enhance predictability for both the public and private sectors by establishing macroeconomic targets based on global, regional and national economic developments, as well as economic and social policies.
The program aims to improve macroeconomic and financial stability, maintain fiscal discipline and ensure price stability by reducing inflation to single digits.
