A comprehensive field study of five active fault lines in Türkiye’s eastern provinces of Van, Hakkari and Ağrı has identified two districts, Yüksekova and Şemdinli, as particularly at risk for future earthquakes.
The project, launched two years ago, aimed to examine the paleoseismological characteristics of key active faults.
Funded by TÜBİTAK, the national science council, the team conducted detailed field studies along the Yüksekova-Şemdinli fault in Hakkari, as well as the Başkale and Erciş faults in Van and the Tutak fault in Ağrı.
Researchers dug trenches measuring 30 meters long, 3 meters wide and 4 meters deep to collect geological samples and analyze historical earthquake activity.
Sacit Mutlu, a member of the research team from Van Yüzüncü Yıl University’s Emergency and Disaster Management Department, emphasized the elevated risk along the Yüksekova-Şemdinli fault.
“This fault has no historical record of destructive earthquakes,” he said. “Our trench studies revealed seismic activity that has not been captured by historical or instrumental records, identifying it as a seismic gap. Combined with Yüksekova’s weak soil, this makes the area particularly vulnerable.”
Samples taken from the trenches are being analyzed at TÜBİTAK’s research center and results will soon allow the team to determine the fault’s earthquake recurrence intervals, he added.
The data collected will also inform urban planning and construction regulations and has already been shared with several institutions, including provincial directorates of environment and urban planning and local municipalities.
