Survey shows slight increase in 2025 inflation expectations

ANKARA

Consumer inflation (CPI) expectations for year-end 2025 edged up to 29.86 percent, according to the Central Bank's Survey of Market Participants released on Sept. 12, a slight increase from 29.69 percent in the prior survey.

The 12‑month ahead CPI forecast eased to 22.25 percent from 22.84 percent, while the 24‑month ahead expectation edged down to 16.78 percent from 16.92 percent.

The country’s annual inflation rate in August eased for the 15th consecutive month to 32.95 percent, its lowest level since November 2021, though still above market forecasts.

Inflation is projected to reach 28.5 percent by the end of this year, before easing to 16 percent in 2026, 9 percent in 2027 and 8 percent in 2028, according to the government’s new medium-term program (OVP) for 2026–28 unveiled earlier this week.

Participants’ year-end exchange rate forecast for the U.S. dollar/Turkish lira slipped to 43.85 from 43.96 in the previous survey. The 12‑month ahead exchange rate expectation rose to 48.96 from 48.36.

The survey also showed participants expect Türkiye’s economy to grow 3.2 percent in 2025, up from 2.9 percent in the previous period, while the 2026 growth forecast remained unchanged at 3.7 percent.

The OVP forecasts GDP growth of 3.3 percent for this year and 3.8 percent for 2026.