The European Commission forecasts that Türkiye's economic growth will remain "resilient," expanding at 3.4 percent in 2025 and 2026, before accelerating to 4 percent in 2027.
"Despite a tight monetary policy stance, domestic demand remained robust in the first half of 2025," the commission said in its European Economic Forecast Autumn 2025 report.
It stated that Türkiye's economic growth was 4.8 percent annually in the second quarter and that household consumption and investment growth were 5.1 percent and 8.8 percent annually, respectively, and economic performance is expected to remain largely unchanged in the third quarter.
By the end of this year, growth is expected to slow to 3.4 percent, before remaining resilient next year, and rising to 4 percent in 2027, with household consumption expected to be the main driver of growth, supported by wealth effects driven by high gold prices and continuing employment gains, according to the report.
It said investments are expected to increase steadily in Türkiye as financial conditions and the economic outlook improve, while the trade and current account deficits are projected to remain generally stable.
The commission said it expects annual inflation to come down "only slowly" in the next two years, on average at 24.8 percent in 2026 and 17.7 percent in 2027.
