WTO hikes 2025 trade growth outlook but tariffs to bite in 2026

GENEVA

AI-related goods and surging exports to the United States ahead of President Donald Trump's tariff hikes boosted global merchandise trade growth this year, the World Trade Organization has said 

However, the picture is bleaker for 2026, the WTO warned, as the impact of the U.S. tariffs kick in.

The WTO raised its forecast for trade volume growth in 2025 to 2.4 percent, up from 0.9 percent in August, and cut its 2026 outlook from 1.8 percent to 0.5 percent.

"Global merchandise trade outpaced expectations in the first half of 2025, driven by increased spending on AI-related products, a surge in North American imports ahead of tariff hikes, and strong trade among the rest of the world," the WTO said, as it published its updated global trade outlook.

In a rare move, the WTO has revised its estimates several times this year due to uncertainties surrounding the impact of the new tariffs imposed by the Trump administration.

"Countries' measured response to tariff changes in general, the growth potential of AI, as well as increased trade among the rest of the world -- particularly among emerging economies -- helped ease trade setbacks in 2025," said WTO chief Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said.

But the former Nigerian finance minister said trade resilience this year should not fool countries into "complacency".

"Today's disruptions to the global trade system are a call to action for nations to reimagine trade and together lay a stronger foundation that delivers greater prosperity for people everywhere," she said.

The WTO's global GDP growth projection is 2.7 percent this year and 2.6 percent in 2026.