One of China’s most important meetings begins Monday, as leader Xi Jinping and other ruling Communist Party elites gather in Beijing to map out the goals for the next five years.
The closed-door gathering — known as the fourth plenum — is expected to last four days and will discuss and put the final touches on China’s next five-year plan, a blueprint for 2026-2030.
The leaders are meeting at a time of heightened trade tensions between Washington and Beijing and just ahead of a possible meeting between Xi and U.S. President Donald Trump during a regional summit later this month.
The fourth plenum refers to the fourth plenary session, out of typically a total of seven sessions during the five-year term of the Chinese Communist Party’s central committee.
The full five-year plan for 2026-2030 and specifics will likely not be released until the annual session of the National People's Congress is held in March.
But there is little reason to expect a radical shift away from the format and messaging style of previous five-year plans, Lynn Song, chief economist for Greater China at ING Bank, said.
The world’s second-largest economy is forecast to expand by 4.8 percent this year, according to the World Bank, a figure close to China’s official target of about 5 percent growth. China faces challenges from the trade war that has intensified since Trump took office, but also from chronic domestic problems that are dragging on growth.
Longstanding efforts to boost consumer spending and investment by businesses and to curb excess capacity in many industries top the list of economic priorities. But Xi also will likely highlight China's push to become the global leader in many technologies, such as artificial intelligence.
China’s pursuit of technological “self-sufficiency,” weaning its industries of their reliance on advanced computer chips from the U.S., has sped up as Trump tightens American export control measures and raises tariffs. That could result in more spending on advanced technology, said Ning Zhang, a senior China economist at UBS.
One key question is whether there will be any meaningful shift in the leadership’s approach to boosting consumption, said Leah Fahy, a China economist at Capital Economics.
Boosting consumption, which would drive borrowing and demand, is “much more important than before” but consumer confidence has been undermined by the bursting of China's property bubble several years ago, Zhang explained.
Economists say bolder moves are needed to make a significant difference.
Price wars in the auto industry are an example of the risks of the ferocious competition that results from overcapacity that afflicts many Chinese industries. China's exports — including to Southeast Asia and Africa — have surged as companies seek markets beyond its borders, adding to friction with the United States and other trading partners.
China's chief challenges in the next five years
Since the massive disruptions of the COVID-19 pandemic, China has struggled to reignite faster economic growth. Its property sector downturn has complicated that effort, causing massive layoffs and leading families to cut back on spending as house prices have fallen.
