OECD lifts Türkiye’s 2025 growth forecast to 3.2 percent

PARIS

Türkiye’s economy is expected to expand by 3.2 percent in both 2025 and 2026, according to the OECD’s September 2025 Interim Economic Outlook on Sept. 23.

The latest projection marks a 0.3 percentage point upward revision for 2025 compared with the June forecast, while the 2026 estimate was trimmed slightly by 0.1 points.

The report notes that temporary factors supporting recent momentum are likely to fade in the second half of 2025 before growth stabilizes.

Under the new medium-term program, the government is targeting growth rates of 3.3 percent this year and 3.8 percent next year, with forecasts of 4.3 percent and 5 percent for 2027 and 2028, respectively.

Headline consumer prices are now projected to rise by 33.5 percent in 2025, an increase of 2.1 points from the OECD’s previous forecast. For 2026, the OECD expects inflation to ease to 19.2 percent, still 0.7 points higher than earlier estimates.

The OECD said monetary policy in Türkiye is likely to shift towards lower interest rates as inflation moderates.

The world economy will grow more than previously forecast this year after absorbing the shock of President Donald Trump's tariffs, but their full impact remains uncertain, the OECD said on Sept. 23.

In June, it had cut its forecast from 3.1 percent to 2.9 percent, warning at the time that Trump's tariffs would stifle the world economy.

But in an updated outlook, it raised the projection to 3.2 percent.

The OECD also upgraded the growth outlook of the United States for 2025 from 1.6 percent to 1.8 percent. It raised the growth outlook of other major economies: to 4.9 percent in China, 1.2 percent in the eurozone and 1.1 percent in Japan.